Since 2014
Post-2013 EU Common Agricultural Policy: predictive models of land use change
Bio-based and Applied Economics
View Archive Info| Field | Value | |
| Title |
Post-2013 EU Common Agricultural Policy: predictive models of land use change
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| Creator |
Romano, Severino; University of Basilicata
Cozzi, Mario; University of Basilicata Giglio, Paolo; University of Basilicata Catullo, Giovanna; University of Basilicata |
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| Subject |
neural networks; multi-layer perceptron (MLP); Community Agricultural Policy; rural development
C45; Q58 |
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| Description |
This article presents a multi-temporal uncertainty-based method that incorporates a statistical regression model with a view to establishing the risk (probability) of land cover changes as a function of a set of environmental and socio-economic driving factors. The morphologic, climatic and socio-economic variables were examined using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model and the Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP). Following the analysis, maps indicating the suitability to future changes were generated on the basis of observed transitions. From these maps two possible land use scenarios were built, applying the Markov chain principle. The region of Basilicata, in southern Italy, was selected for the analysis. The results highlight: a) a good inclination to change towards specialised crop systems, provided there is sufficient water supply; b) that some cropping patterns are not suitable for changes, partly because they are found in a context with severe limitations for alternative uses.
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| Publisher |
Bio-based and Applied Economics
Bio-based and Applied Economics |
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| Contributor |
—
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| Date |
2013-07-15
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| Type |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion — |
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| Format |
application/pdf
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| Identifier |
http://www.fupress.net/index.php/bae/article/view/11142
http://www.fupress.net/index.php/bae/article/download/11142/12540 10.13128/BAE-11142 |
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| Source |
Bio-based and Applied Economics; Vol 2, No 2 (2013); 151-172
Bio-based and Applied Economics; Vol 2, No 2 (2013); 151-172 2280-6172 2280-6180 |
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| Language |
eng
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| Relation |
10.13128/BAE-11142
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