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Analysis of the transitional dynamics and duration of unemployment in Costa Rica

Revista de Ciencias Económicas

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Title Analysis of the transitional dynamics and duration of unemployment in Costa Rica
Análisis sobre la dinámica de transición y duración del desempleo en Costa Rica
 
Creator Castro Vincenzi, Juan Manuel
Garita Garita, Jonathan
Odio Zúñiga, Mariana
 
Subject LABOR MARKET
UNEMPLOYMENT
DURATION
TRANSITION
MERCADO DE TRABAJO
DESEMPLEO
DURACIÓN
TRANSICIÓN
 
Description This paper analyzes the main factors that explain the duration of unemployment spells and the transitional dynamics between the state of employment, unemployment and inactivity in Costa Rican labor market, using the Continuous Employment Survey for the period between the first quarter of 2012 and the third quarter of 2013. This research focuses mainly on supply-side factors and uses binominal and multinomial logit models in order to determine which variables determine that some people are more likely to be unemployed, Markov matrixes to estimate a series of transitional probabilities for different states in the labor market, and a survival model to characterize the duration of the unemployment spells. We conclude that women are more likely to be unemployed than men, and have smaller probabilities of changing from unemployed to employed. Also, the duration of their unemployment spells is longer. Furthermore, a higher academic level decreases the probabilities for an individual of being unemployed, but increases the duration of the unemployment spell. A correlation between the performance of the economic activity and the probabilities of becoming employed and of becoming inactive is observed.
El siguiente trabajo analiza los factores preponderantes que explican la duración de los periodos de desempleo y la dinámica transicional entre el empleo, el desempleo y la inactividad en el mercado laboral de Costa Rica a partir de las Encuestas Continuas de Empleo, desde el primer trimestre de 2012 hasta el tercer trimestre de 2013. La investigación centra su atención en los factores por el lado de la oferta laboral y utilizan modelos logísticos binomiales y multinomiales para establecer cuáles variables determinan que una persona esté desempleada, matrices de Markov para la estimación de diferentes probabilidades de transición dentro del mercado laboral y un modelo de supervivencia para caracterizar la duración de los periodos de desempleo. Se concluye que las mujeres presentan mayores probabilidades de estar desempleadas y menores de cambiar de estado hacia el empleo, así como periodos de desempleo más largos. Asimismo, un mayor grado académico de las personas disminuye sus probabilidades de encontrarse desempleados, pero aumenta la duración de este estado. Se observa una correlación entre el comportamiento de la actividad económica y la probabilidad de conseguir empleo y la de pasar del desempleo a la inactividad
 
Publisher Universidad de Costa Rica
 
Date 2014-11-29
 
Type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
 
Format application/pdf
 
Identifier http://revistas.ucr.ac.cr/index.php/economicas/article/view/17251
10.15517/rce.v32i2.17251
 
Source Revista de Ciencias Económicas; Ciencias Económicas: Volumen 32, Número 2; 39-64
Revista de Ciencias Económicas; Ciencias Económicas: Volumen 32, Número 2; 39-64
2215-3489
0252-9521
 
Language spa
 
Relation http://revistas.ucr.ac.cr/index.php/economicas/article/view/17251/16959
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