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The causal model for the multivariant analysis and forecast of economic development
Ekonomika
View Archive Info| Field | Value | |
| Title |
The causal model for the multivariant analysis and forecast of economic development
The causal model for the multivariant analysis and forecast of economic development |
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| Creator |
Vasylenko, Yuriy V.
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| Subject |
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systemic model, regulated non-equilibrium, modelling of intermediate consumption product, illegal sector, multivariant analyzes and forecasts — — systemic model, regulated non-equilibrium, modelling of intermediate consumption product, illegal sector, multivariant analyzes and forecasts — |
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| Description |
A long-term causal simulation model (macro from micro) for the multivariant analysis and forecast of economic development was developed. The adequacy of the model increased by modelling not only the final products but also intermediate consumption. Shadow economy was included. The model intentionally omits all the hypotheses (monetarists’, Keynesian, theory of equilibrium) which strictly predetermine economy behaviour. The model makes it possible to analyze the influence of prices, under- or overproduction, bank loans on each product, the rates of taxes etc. on the development of all economy and of each manufacturer. Furthermore, this model can help in developing recommendations for the National Bank, government, each manufacturer, importer and exporter. This model has been developed for the Ukrainian economy whose peculiarities were duly accounted for. However, the model can be easily adjusted to study any other country’s economy.
A long-term causal simulation model (macro from micro) for the multivariant analysis and forecast of economic development was developed. The adequacy of the model increased by modelling not only the final products but also intermediate consumption. Shadow economy was included. The model intentionally omits all the hypotheses (monetarists’, Keynesian, theory of equilibrium) which strictly predetermine economy behaviour. The model makes it possible to analyze the influence of prices, under- or overproduction, bank loans on each product, the rates of taxes etc. on the development of all economy and of each manufacturer. Furthermore, this model can help in developing recommendations for the National Bank, government, each manufacturer, importer and exporter. This model has been developed for the Ukrainian economy whose peculiarities were duly accounted for. However, the model can be easily adjusted to study any other country’s economy. |
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| Publisher |
Vilniaus universiteto Ekonomikos fakultetas / Vilnius University Faculty of Economics
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| Contributor |
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| Date |
2015-03-31
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| Type |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Peer-reviewed Article |
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| Format |
application/pdf
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| Identifier |
http://www.zurnalai.vu.lt/ekonomika/article/view/5320
10.15388/Ekon.2015.1.5320 |
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| Source |
Ekonomika; Ekonomika 2015 94(1); 61-78
1392-1258 1392-1258 |
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| Language |
lit
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| Relation |
http://www.zurnalai.vu.lt/ekonomika/article/view/5320/3474
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| Rights |
Autorinės teisės (c) 2015 Ekonomika
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