Record Details

The Ateneo Macroeconomic and Forecasting Model

Philippine Review of Economics

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Title The Ateneo Macroeconomic and Forecasting Model
 
Creator Rodriguez, U-Primo E.; Ateneo de Manila University
Quezon City
Briones, Roehlano M.; Ateneo de Manila University
Quezon City
 
Subject Macroeconometric models; Philippine economy
 
Description The Ateneo Macroeconomic and Forecasting Model (AMFM) is a small quarterly macroeconometric model of the Philippine economy. Designed for forecasting and policy analysis, the model generates results for key macroeconomic indicators. The underlying structure of the AMFM is similar to the short run version of Murphy model of Australia. It incorporates Keynesian elements which capture the slow adjustment of prices and unemployment. It also integrates some of the optimizing behavior that is commonly found in Neoclassical economics and in the long run version of the Murphy model.The stochastic equations of the model were estimated using ordinary least squares. In the specification search, each equation was evaluated on three criteria. First, the coefficient estimates must be consistent with economic theory or a priori expectations. Second, each equation should track actual data well. Finally, each equation must pass a series of statistical tests.Despite being at an early stage of model development, the AMFM as a whole tracks historical data on key macroeconomic aggregates reasonably well. This is supported by the low root mean square errors and mean absolute percentage errors of the variables. JEL classification: E17, D58
 
Publisher Philippine Review of Economics
 
Contributor —
 
Date 2002-06-17
 
Type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
Peer-reviewed Article
 
Format application/pdf
 
Identifier http://www.econ.upd.edu.ph/pre/index.php/pre/article/view/59
 
Source Philippine Review of Economics; Vol 39, No 1 (2002); 142-178
1655-1516
 
Language eng
 
Relation http://www.econ.upd.edu.ph/pre/index.php/pre/article/view/59/565
 
Rights Copyright (c) 2017 Philippine Review of Economics