Record Details

Boom-Bust Cycles and Crisis Periods in the Philippines: A Regime-Switching Analysis

Philippine Review of Economics

View Archive Info
 
 
Field Value
 
Title Boom-Bust Cycles and Crisis Periods in the Philippines: A Regime-Switching Analysis
 
Creator Bautista, Carlos C.; College of Business Administration, University of the Philippines Diliman, Quezon City
 
Subject Boom-bust cycles; macroeconomic fluctuations; Markov regime-switching
 
Description This study examines Philippine macroeconomic fluctuations using Markov regime-switching techniques. Using all available GDP data, an annual and a quarterly model are constructed to explain Philippine boom-bust cycles as switches into any of three states — a moderate growth state, a low growth state and a crisis state. The number and labeling of states are based on historical events. The annual model shows adequate tracking ability. The quarterly model reveals a finer classification of the bust phase into low growth states and crisis states for the 1990-decade — a result that does not appear in the annual model. The crisis dates determined by the quarterly model closely correspond to the four crisis episodes that occurred between 1981 and 1999. JEL classification: E32, O11
 
Publisher Philippine Review of Economics
 
Contributor —
 
Date 2010-09-17
 
Type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
Peer-reviewed Article
 
Format application/pdf
 
Identifier http://www.econ.upd.edu.ph/pre/index.php/pre/article/view/54
 
Source Philippine Review of Economics; Vol 39, No 1 (2002); 20-37
1655-1516
 
Language eng
 
Relation http://www.econ.upd.edu.ph/pre/index.php/pre/article/view/54/559
 
Rights Copyright (c) 2018 Philippine Review of Economics