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Probabilidad de corrección súbita de cuenta corriente para costa rica: un enfoque de análisis de supervivencia

Revista de Ciencias Económicas

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Title Probabilidad de corrección súbita de cuenta corriente para costa rica: un enfoque de análisis de supervivencia
A survival analysis of sudden current account correction for Costa Rica
 
Creator León Murillo, Jorge
Méndez-Chacón, Esteban
 
Subject MODELOS DE SUPERVIVENCIA
BALANCE EXTERNO
MERCADOS EMERGENTES
SURVIVAL MODEL
EXTERNAL BALANCE
EMERGING MARKET
 
Description Mediante un modelo de análisis de supervivencia con datos de panel, se realiza un análisis exploratorio para la estimación de la probabilidad de correcciones súbitas en la cuenta corriente costarricense. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que la probabilidad de reversión de cuenta corriente disminuye cuando: i) se incrementa el crecimiento real para los siguientes cinco años; ii) mejora la situación externa de países considerados similares; iii) aumenta la tasa de dependencia económica; iv) el porcentaje del PIB mundial con el que se han ratificado acuerdos comerciales se incrementa; v) la acumulación de reservas monetarias se acelera; y vi) el marco institucional se vuelve más democrático. Por otra parte, una mayor productividad total de los factores en los cinco años siguientes incrementa la probabilidad de reversión de cuenta corriente. El efecto del control de capitales sobre la probabilidad mostró un comportamiento ambiguo. El análisis se realiza para 116 países con datos anuales de 1981 a 2012.
Using a survival model approach using data panel, an exploratory analysis is made to estimate the probability of a sudden current account correction in Costa Rica. The results show that the estimated probability of a current account reversal decreases when: i) the five years ahead real-growth increases, ii) the external situation of similar countries improves, iii) the economic dependency ratio increases, iv) the world’s GDP percentage for which the country have signed a trade agreement increases, v) reserves accumulation accelerates and vi) the institutional framework becomes more democratic. On the other hand, an increase in the total factor productivity (TFP) growth 5-year ahead raises likelihood of a reversal. The effect of capital controls on the probability showed an ambiguous behavior. Annual data from 1981 to 2012 for 116 countries is used.
 
Publisher Universidad de Costa Rica
 
Date 2016-12-08
 
Type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
 
Format application/pdf
 
Identifier http://revistas.ucr.ac.cr/index.php/economicas/article/view/27316
10.15517/rce.v34i2.27316
 
Source Revista de Ciencias Económicas; Ciencias Económicas: Volumen 34, Número 2; 103-132
Revista de Ciencias Económicas; Ciencias Económicas: Volumen 34, Número 2; 103-132
2215-3489
0252-9521
 
Language spa
 
Relation http://revistas.ucr.ac.cr/index.php/economicas/article/view/27316/27501
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