Since 2014
THEORETICAL MODEL FOR ELECTRICITY MARKET PRICE FORECASTING
Economics and Management
View Archive Info| Field | Value | |
| Title |
THEORETICAL MODEL FOR ELECTRICITY MARKET PRICE FORECASTING
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| Creator |
Bobinaitė, Viktorija; Lithuanian Energy Institute
Konstantinavičiūtė, Inga; Kaunas University of Technology Lekavičius, Vidas; Lithuanian Energy Institute |
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| Subject |
electricity market price; forecasting; price features; price factors; forecasting method; forecasts accuracy
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| Description |
The developed electricity market price forecasting model is presented in this paper. The following structural parts of the model are segregated and shortly described – determination of the aim of market price forecasting, analysis of features of electricity market price, identification of factors forming electricity market price and influencing on its changes, segregation of the most significant factors, gathering of statistical information and its primary processing, selection of forecasting method, calculation of forecasts, assessment of accuracy of forecasts, presentation of recommendations. Indicators and methods, allowing disclosing electricity market price features (volatility, spikes, mean-reversion, and seasonality), are listed. Factors, forming electricity market price and making its changes, are segregated and grouped under their relation with electricity supply, demand and market structure criteria. Methods, allowing segregating the most significant electricity market price factors, are mentioned. Electricity market price forecasting methods are designated and criteria, how to choose the method are ascertained. Indicators for assessment of electricity price forecasts accuracy are aggregated.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5755/j01.em.17.3.2119
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| Publisher |
Kaunas University of Technology
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| Contributor |
—
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| Date |
2012-08-08
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| Type |
—
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| Format |
application/pdf
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| Identifier |
http://www.eejournal.ktu.lt/index.php/Ekv/article/view/2119
10.5755/j01.em.17.3.2119 |
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| Source |
ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT; Vol 17, No 3 (2012); 944-951
EKONOMIKA IR VADYBA; Vol 17, No 3 (2012); 944-951 |
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| Language |
en
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| Rights |
Autorių teisės yra apibrėžtos Lietuvos Respublikos autorių teisių ir gretutinių teisių įstatymo 4-37 straipsniuose.
Copyright terms are indicated in the Republic of Lithuania Law on Copyright and Related Rights, Articles 4-37. |
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