Record Details

Relationship between customers expectations and housing prices in transition economies

Business Systems and Economics

View Archive Info
 
 
Field Value
 
Title Relationship between customers expectations and housing prices in transition economies
Vartotojų lūkesčių ir būsto kainų ryšys pereinamosios ekonomikos šalyse
 
Creator Rudzkienė, Vitalija
Azbainis, Vytautas
 
Subject real estate market; transition economy; consumer expectations; consumer confidence indicator; housing prices
nekilnojamojo turto rinka; pereinamoji ekonomika; vartotojų lūkesčiai; būsto kaina; vartotojų pasitikėjimo rodiklis; vartotojų nuomonė
 
Description Transition economies originate when central management of the market transforms to a free market. Sudden changes can be a cause of significant consumer expectations, which contributes to market volatility. Aim of this research is to reveal relationship between consumer’s confidence and housing price in Lithuania. In this research we come to these conclusions: 1. S udden change of regime, accompanied by privatization and embezzlement of state property, is the damaging process for transition economies. Therefore, the economic decline in Baltic countries was the largest comparing to other countries. 2. I n the process of joining European Economic and Monetary Union it is important to integrate with Euro area business cycle. Rapid integration and changes of monetary policy can lead to asymmetric shocks that could damage the country’s economic system. 3. The first hypothesis of our research stated that consumer opinion on economic trends and future changes evaluated by consumer confidence indicator indicates housing price changes in the future. This hypothesis is proven comparing housing price changes with the 1998 housing price. 4. S econd hypothesis stated that a confidence of different user group on economic trends and future changes is more accurate than the other. This hypothesis is not proven. The sum of correlation coefficient squares differ slightly, overall difference between the maximum and minimum values are less than 10 per cent of maximum value. 5. Comparing housing prices with 1998 price give us more accurate prediction of the time lag between housing prices and consumer confidence indicator changes. 6. When the housing price changes are calculated in comparison with 1998 prices, the highest correlation coefficient obtained when house prices are measured two years after the consumer’s confidence survey. Findings of the research can provide a more accurate relationship between consumer confidence and housing market, but these results should be interpreted with caution, taking into account the fact that consumer surveys started in Lithuania only in 2001 and the housing prices are from 1998. Real estate market cycles are longer term usually. Therefore, to improve results, this research should be repeated by taking a longer time interval.
Nekilnojamojo turto (NT) rinkos svyravimai yra įprastas reiškinys, tačiau 2008 metų pasaulinė finansų krizė ypač stipriai palietė šį sektorių. Siekiant ateityje išvengti tokių kardinalių nuosmukių būtini išsamesni moksliniai tyrimai ir jais pagrįstas nekilnojamojo turto rinkos reguliavimas. Ypatingai dideli pokyčiai matomi pereinamosios ekonomikos šalių NT rinkose. Jie susiformuoja dėl smarkių ekonomikos procesų svyravimų ir dažnai nepagrįstai didelių vartotojų lūkesčių. Paskutinio ekonominio ciklo sukeltas staigus kainų augimas ir kritimas buvo glaudžiai susijęs su vartotojų lūkesčiais, kai vartotojai, subjektyviai vertindami informaciją, nepaisydavo fundamentalių rinkos veiksnių ir priimdavo neracionalius sprendimus. Šio straipsnio tikslas yra ištirti pastarojo dešimtmečio būstų kainų ir vartotojų pasitikėjimo rodiklio ryšius, jų pobūdį Lietuvoje – vienoje iš pereinamosios ekonomikos šalių. Tyrimo metu nustatyta, kad vartotojų pasitikėjimo rodiklis turi poveikį NT kainoms, tačiau patikimo statistinio ryšio tarp skirtingų vartotojų grupių pasitikėjimo rodiklio ir būsto kainos pokyčių nustatyti nepavyko.
 
Publisher Mykolo Romerio Universitas
 
Contributor —
—
 
Date 2013-08-22
 
Type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
—
—
 
Format application/pdf
 
Identifier https://www3.mruni.eu/ojs/business-systems-and-economics/article/view/496
 
Source Business Systems & Economics; Vol 2, No 1 (2012): Business Systems & Economics; 61-77
Verslo sistemos ir ekonomika; Vol 2, No 1 (2012): Business Systems & Economics; 61-77
2029-8234
 
Language ltu
 
Relation https://www3.mruni.eu/ojs/business-systems-and-economics/article/view/496/459
 
Rights Copyright (c) 2014 Business Systems & Economics