Since 2014
Kesan Dasar Makroekonomi kepada Pelancongan di Malaysia
Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia
View Archive Info| Field | Value | |
| Title |
Kesan Dasar Makroekonomi kepada Pelancongan di Malaysia
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| Creator |
Zakaria, Kalsom
Sarmidi, Tamat Mohd Salleh, Norlida Hanim Othman, Redzuan |
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| Subject |
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| Description |
ABSTRAKKajian ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji kewujudan hubungan antara pelancongan, pertumbuhan dan dasar makroekonomidi Malaysia. Untuk tujuan tersebut ujian kointegrasi berasaskan struktur autoregrasi lat bertabur (ARDL) digunakan.Pemboleubah yang digunakan ialah pertumbuhan (KDNK), kadar pertukaran benar efektif (REER) perbelanjaan kerajaan(EXPM) dan krisis ekonomi (CR). Data tahun 1980 hingga 2009 bagi 10 buah negara terpilih iaitu Brunei, Thailand,Indonesia, United Kingdom, Amerika Syarikat (USA), Singapura, Jepun, India, Australia dan China digunakan. Hasilkajian mendapati bahawa ujian punca unit Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) bagi semua pemboleh ubah adalah pegunpada tahap paras I(0) atau pembezaan pertama I(1). Ujian kointegrasi menunjukkan wujud hubungan jangka panjangantara semua negara. Kadar pertukaran benar REER merupakan pemboleh ubah yang sangat penting mempengaruhiketibaan pelancong berbanding pemboleh ubah lain seperti EXPM. EXPM umpamanya hanya signifikan mempengaruhiketibaan pelancong bagi beberapa buah negara iaitu Australia, Brunei, Singapura, Thailand dan United Kingdom. Jikadibandingkan antara negara pula didapati setiap negara memperoleh keputusan yang berbeza. Australia umpamanyadidapati tiga pemboleh ubah penting yang mempengaruhi ketibaan pelancong ialah KDNK, EXPM dan REER, manakalabagi negara Brunei dan United Kingdom hanya satu pemboleh ubah yang penting mempengaruhi ketibaan pelancongiaitu EXPM. Negara China dan Amerika Syarikat pula menunjukkan hubungan yang signifikan bagi pemboleh ubahKDNK, REER dan CR.Kata kunci: Pelancongan; dasar makroekonomi; model ARDLABSTRACTThis study aims to investigate the existence of the relationship between tourism, growth and macroeconomic policyin the case of Malaysia. For that purpose, structure-based co-integration test autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL)is used. Variables used are growth (GDP), real effective exchange rate (REER), government spending (EXPM) and theeconomic crisis (CR). Data from 1980 to 2009 for 10 selected countries, namely Brunei, Thailand, Indonesia, UnitedKingdom, United States of America (USA), Singapore, Japan, India, Australia and China are used. This study found thatthe unit root test which refer to the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) for all variables are stationary in levels and at thefirst difference [I (0) and I (1)]. The co-integration test found that the long-term relationship exists for all countries.Real effective exchange rate (REER) is a very important variable affecting tourist arrivals as compared to the othersfor instance the EXPM. EXPM only important for a few countries, namely Australia, Brunei, Singapore, Thailand andthe United Kingdom. Based on the country analysis, it is found that each countries obtain different results. Australiafor example, there are three the most important variables that influence the arrivals namely GDP, EXPM and REER, whilefor Brunei and the United Kingdom only EXPM is the significant variable affecting tourist arrivals. The GDP, REER andCR have been found as the significant variables for China and the United States.Keywords: Tourism; macroeconomic polic; ARDL Model
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| Publisher |
Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia
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| Contributor |
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| Date |
2013-07-01
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| Type |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Peer-reviewed Article — |
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| Format |
application/pdf
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| Identifier |
http://ejournal.ukm.my/jem/article/view/5572
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| Source |
Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia; Vol 47, No 1 (2013): Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia; 53-64
0126-1962 |
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| Language |
eng
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| Relation |
http://ejournal.ukm.my/jem/article/view/5572/2642
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