Since 2014
Economic Dynamics of the German Hog-Price Cycle
International Journal on Food System Dynamics
View Archive Info| Field | Value | |
| Title |
Economic Dynamics of the German Hog-Price Cycle
|
|
| Creator |
Berg, Ernst
Huffaker, Ray |
|
| Subject |
Hog cycle; nonlinear dynamics; chaos; phase space reconstruction
|
|
| Description |
We investigated the economic dynamics of the German hog-price cycle with an innovative ‘diagnostic’ modeling approach. Hog-price cycles are conventionally modeled stochastically—most recently as randomly-shifting sinusoidal oscillations. Alternatively, we applied Nonlinear Time Series analysis to empirically reconstruct a deterministic, low-dimensional, and nonlinear attractor from observed hog prices. We next formulated a structural (explanatory) model of the pork industry to synthesize the empirical hog-price attractor. Model simulations demonstrate that low price-elasticity of demand contributes to aperiodic price cycling – a well know result – and further reveal two other important driving factors: investment irreversibility (caused by high specificity of technology), and liquidity-driven investment behavior of German farmers.
|
|
| Publisher |
CentMA
|
|
| Contributor |
—
|
|
| Date |
2015-07-15
|
|
| Type |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion — |
|
| Format |
application/pdf
|
|
| Identifier |
http://centmapress.ilb.uni-bonn.de/ojs/index.php/fsd/article/view/621
10.18461/ijfsd.v6i2.621 |
|
| Source |
International Journal on Food System Dynamics; Vol 6, No 2 (2015); 64 - 80
1869-6945 |
|
| Language |
eng
|
|
| Relation |
http://centmapress.ilb.uni-bonn.de/ojs/index.php/fsd/article/view/621/488
|
|