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On Balance of Payments Crisis in Serbia: If it ain’t broken, why fixing it might still be a good idea?
Economic Analysis
View Archive Info| Field | Value | |
| Title |
On Balance of Payments Crisis in Serbia: If it ain’t broken, why fixing it might still be a good idea?
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| Creator |
Malović, Marko
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| Description |
Contrary to mainstream opinions, with external deficit of more than 16% of GDP and foreign debt of 16 billion €, Serbia is at the verge of balance of payments crisis. It is most likely going to un‐ ravel as a sudden stop phenomenon, after which considerable real depreciation of national currency will be finally forced by both domestic and international portfolio adjustment. However, if Serbian monetary au‐ thorities manage to coordinate real exchange rate depreciation with urging reforms on a wider macroeco‐ nomic front, capital flow reversal does not necessarily have to bite into long‐run economic growth and em‐ ployment. In fact, it might prove to be a starting ingredient of bottoming out. One thing is for sure: Serbia won’t be able to maintain the present level of spending for much longer. Hopefully sooner rather than later, irrational or morally hazardous exuberance shall dissipate and leave room for inevitable rebalancing along the national saving‐investment axis.
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| Publisher |
Institute of Economic Sciences, Belgrade, Serbia
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| Date |
2017-09-25
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| Type |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
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| Format |
application/pdf
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| Identifier |
https://www.library.ien.bg.ac.rs/index.php/ea/article/view/48
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| Source |
Economic Analysis; Vol 41 No 1-2 (2008): Economic Analysis; 25-47
2560-3949 1821-2573 |
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| Language |
eng
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| Relation |
https://www.library.ien.bg.ac.rs/index.php/ea/article/view/48/44
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| Rights |
Copyright (c) 2017 Economic Analysis
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0 |
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