Record Details

Using Bayesian Models To Forecast International Arrivals And Departures By Age, Sex, And Region In New Zealand

Labour, Employment and Work in New Zealand

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Field Value
 
Title Using Bayesian Models To Forecast International Arrivals And Departures By Age, Sex, And Region In New Zealand
 
Creator Bryant, John
Nissen, Kirsten
 
Subject Bayesian Models; in-migration; out-migration
 
Description Statistics New Zealand prepares regular population projections at the subnational level. Like other statistical agencies, Statistics NZ currently uses a deterministic approach to subnational projections. However, we are currently developing an alternative, more statistical, approach. In this paper, we describe two Bayesian hierarchical models for estimating and forecasting international in-migration and out-migration rates, disaggregated by age, sex, and territorial authority. The model uses international arrivals and departures data for 1991-2013, and produces forecasts for 2014-2039. Special attention is given to the ability of the model to estimate migration rates for small population domains. The modelled approach provides a coherent and integrated measure of uncertainty at the detailed demographic level. Examples of estimated and forecasted migration rates are presented. We conclude with a discussion of the challenges and limitations of the data and model, and directions for future developments.
 
Publisher Victoria University of Wellington
 
Date 2015-05-05
 
Type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
Peer-reviewed Article
 
Format application/pdf
 
Identifier https://ojs.victoria.ac.nz/LEW/article/view/3672
10.26686/lew.v0i0.3672
 
Source Labour, Employment and Work in New Zealand; 2015: Labour, Employment and Work in New Zealand
2463-2600
 
Language eng
 
Relation https://ojs.victoria.ac.nz/LEW/article/view/3672/3488
 
Rights Copyright (c) 2015 Labour, Employment and Work in New Zealand