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Forecasting GDP Growth: Application of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model

Empirical Economic Review

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ISSN 2522-2465
2415-0304
 
Authentication Code dc
 
Title Statement Forecasting GDP Growth: Application of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model
 
Personal Name Awel, Yesuf M.
PhD, Economist-Consultant; P.O Box 101182, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
 
Summary, etc. This paper uses Box-Jenkins approach to model and forecast real GDP growth in Ethiopia. Such an approach could easily provide forecast for key macroeconomic variables in limited data environment. Based on the approach, the paper estimates Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ARIMA (1,1,1) model and forecasts real GDP growth. Both the in-sample fit and pseudo-out of sample forecasts show that the ARIMA model’s performance are good and better than other forecasts.
 
Publication, Distribution, Etc. Department of Economics - University of Management and Technology
 
Electronic Location and Access application/pdf
https://ojs.umt.edu.pk/index.php/eer/article/view/155
 
Data Source Entry Empirical Economic Review; Vol 1 No 2 (2018): Winter 2018
 
Language Note eng
 
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