Forecasting GDP Growth: Application of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model
Empirical Economic Review
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ISSN |
2522-2465 2415-0304 |
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Authentication Code |
dc |
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Title Statement |
Forecasting GDP Growth: Application of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model |
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Personal Name |
Awel, Yesuf M. PhD, Economist-Consultant; P.O Box 101182, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia |
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Summary, etc. |
This paper uses Box-Jenkins approach to model and forecast real GDP growth in Ethiopia. Such an approach could easily provide forecast for key macroeconomic variables in limited data environment. Based on the approach, the paper estimates Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ARIMA (1,1,1) model and forecasts real GDP growth. Both the in-sample fit and pseudo-out of sample forecasts show that the ARIMA model’s performance are good and better than other forecasts.
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Publication, Distribution, Etc. |
Department of Economics - University of Management and Technology |
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Electronic Location and Access |
application/pdf https://ojs.umt.edu.pk/index.php/eer/article/view/155 |
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Data Source Entry |
Empirical Economic Review; Vol 1 No 2 (2018): Winter 2018 |
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Language Note |
eng |
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Terms Governing Use and Reproduction Note |
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