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Non-equidistant “Basic Form”-focused Grey Verhulst Models (NBFGVMs) for ill-structured socio-economic forecasting problems

Labour, Employment and Work in New Zealand

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Title Non-equidistant “Basic Form”-focused Grey Verhulst Models (NBFGVMs) for ill-structured socio-economic forecasting problems
 
Creator Hashem-Nazari, Mohammad
Esfahanipour, Akbar
Ghomi, S.M.T. Fatemi
 
Description Multiple uncertainties complicate socio-economic forecasting problems, especially when relying on ill-conditioned limited data. Such problems are best addressed by grey prediction models such as Grey Verhulst Model (GVM). This paper resolves the incompatibility between GVM’s estimation and prediction by taking its basic form equation as the basis of both. The resultant “Basic Form”-focused GVM (BFGVM) is also further developed to create Direct Non-equidistant BFGVM (DNBFGVM) and, in turn, DNBFGVM with Recursive simulation (DNBFGVMR). Experimental analyses comprise 19 socio-economic time series with an emphasis on Iranian population, a low-frequency non-equidistant time series with remarkable strategic importance. Promisingly, the proposed DNBFGVM and DNBFGVMR provide accurate in-sample and out-of-sample socio-economic forecasts, show highly significant improvements over the best traditional GVM, and offer cost-effective intelligent support of decision-making. Final results suggest future trends of studied socio-economic time series. Specifically, they reveal Iranian population to grow even slower than anticipated, demanding an urgent consideration of policy-makers.
 
Publisher VGTU Press Technika
 
Date 2017-08-27
 
Type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
Peer-reviewed Article
 
Format application/pdf
application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet
 
Identifier https://journals.vgtu.lt/index.php/JBEM/article/view/1228
10.3846/16111699.2017.1337045
 
Source Journal of Business Economics and Management; Vol 18 No 4 (2017); 676-694
2029-4433
1611-1699
 
Language eng
 
Relation https://journals.vgtu.lt/index.php/JBEM/article/view/1228/966
https://journals.vgtu.lt/index.php/JBEM/article/view/1228/1068
 
Rights http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0