Since 2014
Colombian PostConflict and its Economic Effects
CIFE Journal: Readings of Social Economy
View Archive Info| Field | Value | |
| Title |
Colombian PostConflict and its Economic Effects
Posconflicto colombiano y sus efectos económicos |
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| Creator |
Ruiz Diaz, María
Galeano Raquejo, John Gil Mateus, Edwin |
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| Subject |
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Perspectivas económicas; Negociaciones; Economic Outlook; Negotiations. |
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| Description |
Abstract The government peace negotiations with the so-called Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) could have an impact on the Colombian economy, being relevant to analyze such effects. Therefore three possible scenarios to financial and international trade level for a period of five years, compared to the possible outcomes of the negotiation process are outlined. From case studies in five countries faced the completion of an internal conflict, military or diplomatic channels, variables were analyzed on which could provide an effect, taking into account the post-conflict and outcome of peace negotiations between the guerrillas and the government. It is concluded that in the five years after signing the agreement, the balance of goods and services would grow between 3% and 6%; would trade between 10% and 15% greater; country risk would rise about 4 points; Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) would increase between 40% and 50%; annual GDP growth would be 1 or 2 percentage points higher than the current and military spending would decrease 10% as a percentage of GDP.
Resumen Las negociaciones de paz del gobierno con las denominadas Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) podrían tener efectos sobre la economía colombiana. Por ello se esbozan tres escenarios –pesimista, neutral y optimista– en los que se distingan efectos a nivel financiero y de comercio internacional en los cinco años posteriores a la finalización del proceso de negociación. Partiendo del estudio de casos en cinco países que enfrentaron la terminación de un conflicto interno, por vía militar o diplomática, se analizaron variables sobre las cuales se podría prever un efecto, teniendo en cuenta el posconflicto y el desenlace de las negociaciones de paz entre la guerrilla y el Gobierno. Se concluye que en los cinco años posteriores a la firma del acuerdo, la balanza de bienes y servicios crecería entre el 3% y 6%; el comercio lo haría entre 10% y 15%; el Riesgo País se incrementaría alrededor de 4 puntos; la Inversión Extranjera Directa (IED) aumentaría entre 40% y 50%; el crecimiento del PIB anual estaría 1 ó 2 puntos porcentuales más alto que el actual y el gasto militar disminuiría al 10% como porcentaje del PIB. Abstract The government peace negotiations with the so-called Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) could have an impact on the Colombian economy, being relevant to analyze such effects. Therefore three possible scenarios to financial and international trade level for a period of five years, compared to the possible outcomes of the negotiation process are outlined. From case studies in five countries faced the completion of an internal conflict, military or diplomatic channels, variables were analyzed on which could provide an effect, taking into account the post-conflict and outcome of peace negotiations between the guerrillas and the government. It is concluded that in the five years after signing the agreement, the balance of goods and services would grow between 3% and 6%; would trade between 10% and 15% greater; country risk would rise about 4 points; Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) would increase between 40% and 50%; annual GDP growth would be 1 or 2 percentage points higher than the current and military spending would decrease 10% as a percentage of GDP. |
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| Publisher |
Universidad Santo Tomás
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| Contributor |
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| Date |
2016-08-02
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| Type |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion — |
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| Format |
application/pdf
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| Identifier |
http://revistas.usantotomas.edu.co/index.php/cife/article/view/3210
10.15332/s0124-3551.2015.0027.01 |
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| Source |
Revista CIFE: Lecturas de Economía Social; Vol. 17, Núm. 27 (2015); 23-54
CIFE Journal: Readings of Social Economy; Vol. 17, Núm. 27 (2015); 23-54 22484914 01243551 |
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| Language |
spa
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| Relation |
http://revistas.usantotomas.edu.co/index.php/cife/article/view/3210/3173
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| Rights |
Copyright (c) 2016 Revista CIFE: Lecturas de Economía Social
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