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Comparing univariate techniques for tender price index forecasting: Box-Jenkins and neural network model

Construction Economics and Building

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Title Comparing univariate techniques for tender price index forecasting: Box-Jenkins and neural network model
 
Creator Oshodi, Olalekan
Ejohwomu, Obuks Augustine
Famakin, Ibukun Oluwadara
Cortez, Paulo
 
Subject Construction economics
Box-Jenkins; Forecast; Model; Neural network; Tender price index.
Construction economics
 
Description The poor performance of projects is a recurring event in the construction sector. Information gleaned from literature shows that uncertainty in project cost is one of the significant causes of this problem. Reliable forecast of construction cost is useful in mitigating the adverse effect of its fluctuation, however the availability of data for the development of multivariate models for construction cost forecasting remains a challenge. The study seeks to investigate the reliability of using univariate models for tender price index forecasting. Box-Jenkins and neural network are the modelling techniques applied in this study. The results show that the neural network model outperforms the Box-Jenkins model, in terms of accuracy. In addition, the neural network model provides a reliable forecast of tender price index over a period of 12 quarters ahead. The limitations of using the univariate models are elaborated. The developed neural network model can be used by stakeholders as a tool for predicting the movements in tender price index. In addition, the univariate models developed in the present study are particularly useful in countries where limited data reduces the possibility of applying multivariate models.
 
Publisher UTS ePRESS
 
Contributor —
 
Date 2017-09-21
 
Type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
Peer reviewed invited commentry
Model
 
Format application/pdf
text/html
 
Identifier http://epress.lib.uts.edu.au/journals/index.php/AJCEB/article/view/5524
10.5130/AJCEB.v17i3.5524
 
Source Construction Economics and Building; Vol 17, No 3 (2017): Construction Economics and Building; 109-123
2204-9029
 
Language eng
 
Relation http://epress.lib.uts.edu.au/journals/index.php/AJCEB/article/view/5524/6131
http://epress.lib.uts.edu.au/journals/index.php/AJCEB/article/view/5524/6142
 
Coverage Hong Kong
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Rights Copyright (c) 2017 Oshodi Olalekan, Obuks Augustine Ejohwomu, Ibukun Oluwadara Famakin
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0