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The role of confidence in the evolution of the Spanish economy: empirical evidence from an ARDL model

European Journal of Government and Economics

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Field Value
 
Title The role of confidence in the evolution of the Spanish economy: empirical evidence from an ARDL model
 
Creator Castellanos García, Pablo
Pérez Díaz del Río, Indalecio
Sanchez-Santos, Jose Manuel
 
Subject confidence; economic sentiment; ARDL models
C22; D84; E37
 
Description The aim of this paper is to verify the existence and to determine the nature of long-term relationships between economic agents’ confidence, measured by the Economic Sentiment Index (ESI), with some of the "fundamentals" of the Spanish economy. In particular, by modeling this type of relations, we try to determine whether confidence is a dependent (explained) or independent (explanatory) variable. Along with confidence, in our model we incorporate variables such as risk premium of sovereign debt, financial market volatility, unemployment, inflation, public and private debt and the net lending/net borrowing of the economy. For the purpose of obtaining some empirical evidence on the exogenous or endogenous character of the above mentioned variables an ARDL (Autoregressive-Distributed Lag) model is formulated. The model is estimated with quarterly data of the Spanish economy for the period 1990-2012. Our findings suggest that: (a) unemployment is the dependent variable, (b) there is an inverse relationship between ESI in Spain and unemployment; and (c) the Granger causality goes from confidence to unemployment.
 
Publisher Europa Grande
 
Contributor —
 
Date 2014-12-30
 
Type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
Peer-reviewed Article
 
Format application/pdf
 
Identifier http://www.ejge.org/index.php/ejge/article/view/66
 
Source European Journal of Government and Economics; Vol 3, No 2 (2014); 148-161
2254-7088
 
Language eng
 
Relation http://www.ejge.org/index.php/ejge/article/view/66/49
 
Rights Copyright (c) 2014 Pablo Castellanos García, Indalecio Pérez Díaz del Río, Jose Manuel Sanchez-Santos
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0