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MODELING AND FORECASTING OF MEAT AND EGGS PRODUSING IN UKRAINE WITH SEASONAL ARIMA-MODEL

Agricultural and Resource Economics International Scientific E-Journal

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Title MODELING AND FORECASTING OF MEAT AND EGGS PRODUSING IN UKRAINE WITH SEASONAL ARIMA-MODEL
МОДЕЛЮВАННЯ Й ПРОГНОЗУВАННЯ ВИРОБНИЦТВА М’ЯСА ТА ЯЄЦЬ В УКРАЇНІ ЗА ДОПОМОГОЮ СЕЗОННОЇ ARIMA-МОДЕЛІ
 
Creator Zomchak, Larysa
Umrysh, Hryhorii
 
Subject agriculture; seasonality; time series; economic and mathematical modeling; SARIMA model; forecasting.
сільське господарство; сезонність; часові ряди; економіко-математичне моделювання; модель SARIMA; прогнозування.
 
Description The article investigates the problem of seasonality in the production of meat and eggs on the basis of the dynamics of time series of meat and egg production in Ukraine in 2009–2016. After the construction of the input time series in the stationary, parameters of the model were found and the production volumes of meat and eggs for the subsequent periods are predicted. The seasonal autoregressive economic and mathematical models such as SARIMA (seasonally ARIMA) were fitted on the basis of the time series describing the monthly dynamics of meat and egg production in Ukraine (based on statistics for the period 2009–2016). On the basis of these models, the forecasts of these indicators are received for the next two years. By comparing the obtained forecasts with the actual values, the conclusion is drawn about the adequacy of the results obtained.
У статті досліджено проблему сезонності у виробництві м’яса та яєць. Побудовано сезонні авторегресійні економіко-математичні моделі типу SARIMA (сезоннаARIMA) часових рядів, що описують динаміку виробництва м’яса та яєць в Україні на основі щомісячних статистичних даних за період 2009–2016 рр., а також на основі цих моделей одержано прогнози зазначених показників на найближчі два роки.
 
Publisher Agricultural and Resource Economics International Scientific E-Journal
Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal
 
Contributor —
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Date 2017-09-20
 
Type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
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Format application/pdf
 
Identifier http://are-journal.com/are/article/view/117
 
Source Agricultural and Resource Economics International Scientific E-Journal; Vol 3, No 3 (2017); 16-27
Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal; Vol 3, No 3 (2017); 16-27
2414-584X
 
Language ukr
 
Relation http://are-journal.com/are/article/view/117/113
 
Rights Copyright (c) 2017 Agricultural and Resource Economics International Scientific E-Journal