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Deficit pubblico, tassi d'interesse reali a lungo termine ex-post e casualità

Moneta e Credito

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Title Deficit pubblico, tassi d'interesse reali a lungo termine ex-post e casualità
 
Creator CEBULA, R.J.
 
Subject —
Budget deficit, interest rates, economic growth
H6, E43
 
Description A number of empirical studies have investigated the impact of the federal Government budget deficit on interest rates in the US with most of them concluding that it is positive and significant on long-term interest rates. Both the IS/LM and the loanable funds frameworks through which this relationship is usually couched imply that causality flows from increased deficits to interest rates. The present work argues that the direction of causality may well be the reverse, that is real long-term interest rates may cause the budget deficit. The author offers two reasons to support this hypothesis. First, much or the Government’s debt is financed or refinanced in just a few short years. Second, according to conventional macroeconomic theory, a rise in the real interest rate should lead to a fall in real economic growth. A multivariate causality test is employed to determine the direction of causality among the real long-term interest rate, the unemployment rate and the structural deficit.  JEL Codes: H6, E43Keywords: Budget deficit, interest rates, economic growth
 
Publisher Associazione Economia civile
 
Contributor —
 
Date 2013-10-26
 
Type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
Articolo peer-review
 
Format application/pdf
 
Identifier http://ojs.uniroma1.it/index.php/monetaecredito/article/view/11040
 
Source Moneta e Credito; Vol 50, N° 199 (1997)
Moneta e Credito; Vol 50, N° 199 (1997)
2037-3651
 
Language ita
 
Relation http://ojs.uniroma1.it/index.php/monetaecredito/article/view/11040/10915
 
Rights Copyright (c) 2016 R.J. CEBULA
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0