Record Details

The Use of Time-Series Models to Forecast the Annual Inflation Rates in Sudan

Journal of Administrative and Economics Science

View Archive Info
 
 
Field Value
 
Title The Use of Time-Series Models to Forecast the Annual Inflation Rates in Sudan
 
Creator Abdelgadir, Gariballa Abdelmageed
 
Description This research aims to build a statistical model to forecast the inflation rates in Sudan, using annualdata for the period from 1970 to 2014. Based on the results of Autocorrelation function test (ACF) andAugmented Dickey-Fuller Test (ADF), the study finds that the original series of inflation is not stationary.Accordingly, the first difference has been applied to achieve the stationary. Diagnostic results indicate thatthe proper model for the series is autoregressive model of first-order ARIMA (1,1,0), The validity of thismodel has been confirmed through the significance tests, normal distribution of residuals test and residualsrandom test. According to this model inflation rates in Sudan has been forecasted for the period (2015-2024).Keywords: Inflation, Time Series, Dickey-Fuller, Stationary,Diagnostic.
 
Publisher Qassim University Academic Publishing and translation
 
Contributor —
 
Date 2017-03-22
 
Type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
—
 
Identifier http://publications.qu.edu.sa/ojs/index.php/economic/article/view/1524
 
Source Journal Of Administrative And Economics Science; Vol 9, No 2
 
Rights Copyright (c) 2017 Journal Of Administrative And Economics Science