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Modelling the Inflation Rate in Sudan by a Seasonal ARIMA Model
Euro-Asian Journal of Economics and Finance
View Archive Info| Field | Value | |
| Title |
Modelling the Inflation Rate in Sudan by a Seasonal ARIMA Model
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| Creator |
Mohamed, Tariq Mahgoub
Etuk, Ette Harrison |
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| Subject |
Inflation rate; SARIMA model; Sudan
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| Description |
Sudanese Monthly Inflation series is modelled by Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average methodology. The realization analyzed spans from 2005 to 2015. The time plot shows a generally positive trend. An inspection of the series reveals a yearly seasonal pattern. Augmented Dickey Fuller test suggests that this original series is not stationary. A seasonal (i.e. twelve-monthly) differencing proves not to be enough to render the series stationary. A further non-seasonal differencing renders the series stationary. The autocorrelation structure of this resultant time series suggests some SARIMA models including those of orders: (1,1,0)x(1,1,1)12, (1,1,1)x(1,1,1)12 and (0,1,1)x(1,1,1)12. Diagnostic checking procedures applied suggest the comparative adequacy of the SARIMA(1,1,0)x(1,1,1)12 model. Forecasting and simulation of the series may therefore be based on it.
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| Publisher |
Academy of Business & Scientific Research
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| Date |
2016-07-10
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| Type |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Peer-reviewed Article |
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| Format |
application/pdf
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| Identifier |
http://absronline.org/journals/index.php/eajef/article/view/669
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| Source |
Euro-Asian Journal of Economics and Finance; Vol 4 No 3 (2016): July; 81-92
2310-4929 2310-0184 |
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| Language |
eng
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| Relation |
http://absronline.org/journals/index.php/eajef/article/view/669/687
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| Rights |
Copyright (c) 2016 Euro-Asian Journal of Economics and Finance
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