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FORECASTING MACRO TARGETS OF THE TURKISH ECONOMY FOR THE YEAR 2000: AN APPLICATION OF BOX-JENKINS AND EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING METHODS

Dokuz Eylul University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences Journal

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Title FORECASTING MACRO TARGETS OF THE TURKISH ECONOMY FOR THE YEAR 2000: AN APPLICATION OF BOX-JENKINS AND EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING METHODS
 
Creator BİLGİLİ, FAİK
 
Description The basic macroeconomic targets of the Turkish economy for the year 2000 and thereafter are to reduce the interest rates to plausible levels and increase the total production in a steady way. The goal of this study is to see if the Turkish government can realize these targets for the year 2000. For this purpose, I employed, here in this study, two widely used forecasting techniques; Box-Jenkins and exponential smoothing procedures to forecast monthly future values of interest rates on deposits and industrial production index. Forecast outputs indicate that interest rate tends to decrease and industrial production index tends to increase. Therefore, it can be concluded that these forecasting methodologies verify that government’s main macro targets will be most likely realized for the year 2000.
 
Publisher Dokuz Eylul University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences Journal
Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi
 
Contributor —
 
Date 2013-05-23
 
Type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
—
 
Format application/pdf
 
Identifier https://iibfdergi.deu.edu.tr/index.php/cilt1-sayi1/article/view/94
 
Source Dokuz Eylul University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences Journal; Cilt 15, Sayı 2 (2000): CİLT:15 SAYI:2
Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi; Cilt 15, Sayı 2 (2000): CİLT:15 SAYI:2
2147-7973
1302-504X
 
Language eng
 
Relation https://iibfdergi.deu.edu.tr/index.php/cilt1-sayi1/article/view/94/pdf_80