Since 2014
Randomness, Determinism and Undecidability in the Economic Cycle Theory
Journal of Economics and Political Economy
View Archive Info| Field | Value | |
| Title |
Randomness, Determinism and Undecidability in the Economic Cycle Theory
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| Creator |
ROMANA, Ignacio Escañuela; Junta de Andalucía. Calle Ramón de Paz 30, 41820 Carrión de los Céspedes, Sevilla. España. ignacioesro@gmail.com Tfnos. 954755807, 674155783. |
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| Subject |
Randomness, Business cycle theories, Undecidability, Heuristic.
B40; D50; E32. |
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| Description |
AbstractThe scientific literature that studies the Business cycles contains a historical debate between random and deterministic models. On the one hand, models built with explanatory variables follow a stochastic trajectory and produce, through transmission mechanisms, the studied cycles. Its rationale: the so-called Slutsky-Yule effect. In addition, models in which the system phase at time T fixes, applying the “ceteris paribus condition”, the phase at time t + 1. The cycle would be the product of variables, making it possible to predict and enabling economic policies to combat recessions. The thesis of this work is as follows. The application of the theorems of Chaitin of undecidability shows that it is not possible to conclude such debate. It is impossible to determine with absolute certainty whether the observed cycles follow a deterministic or stochastic model. To reach this result, I outline the fundamental theories of the business cycle, providing a classification and examples of mathematical models. I review the definition of randomness, and I consider the demonstration of Chaitin about the impossibility of deciding whether a data set is stochastic or not. A consequence, he says, of Gödel incompleteness theorems. I conclude considering a string of economic data, aggregated or not, as random or deterministic, depends on the theory. This applies to all cyclical phenomena of any nature. Specific mathematical models have observable consequences. But probabilism and determinism are only heuristic programs that guide the knowledge progress. Key words: Randomness, Business cycle theories, Undecidability, Heuristic.JEL: B40, D50, E32.
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| Publisher |
Journal of Economics and Political Economy
Journal of Economics and Political Economy |
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| Contributor |
—
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| Date |
2016-12-18
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| Type |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion — — |
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| Format |
application/pdf
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| Identifier |
http://www.kspjournals.org/index.php/JEPE/article/view/1083
10.1453/jepe.v3i4.1083 |
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| Source |
Journal of Economics and Political Economy; Vol 3, No 4 (2016): December; 638-658
Journal of Economics and Political Economy; Vol 3, No 4 (2016): December; 638-658 2148-8347 |
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| Language |
eng
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| Relation |
http://www.kspjournals.org/index.php/JEPE/article/view/1083/1151
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| Rights |
Copyright (c) 2017 Journal of Economics and Political Economy
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0 |
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