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The assessment of some point and forecast intervals for unemployment rate in Romania

International Journal of Economic Practices and Theories

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Field Value
 
Title The assessment of some point and forecast intervals for unemployment rate in Romania
 
Creator Mihaela, Simionescu
 
Subject Econometrics and statistics
point forecasts; forecast intervals; VAR model; Bayesian VAR model;unemployment rate
C51; C53
 
Description In this paper, quarterly point forecasts and prediction intervals are built for unemployment rate in Romania. The point forecasts are based on some updated vector-autoregressive models (VAR models) and on a Bayesian VAR model. These point predictions and the root mean squared- error corresponding to the forecasts of the previous 4 quarters are used to construct the intervals. According to root mean squared-error, mean error and mean absolute error, VAR model outperformed the Bayesian approach in terms of forecast accuracy. 75% of the intervals based on VAR models included the quarterly forecasts on the horizon 2011:01-2014:04. The probability of these intervals to include the actual values is higher than 0.8, according to likelihood ratio and chi-square tests.
 
Publisher International Journal of Economic Practices and Theories
 
Contributor —
 
Date 2015-04-01
 
Type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
Peer-reviewed Article
 
Format application/pdf
 
Identifier http://www.ijept.org/index.php/ijept%20/article/view/The_Assessment_of_Some_Point_and_Forecast_Intervals_for_Unemployment_Rate_in_Romania
 
Source International Journal of Economic Practices and Theories; Vol 5, No 2 (2015); 88-94
2247 – 7225
 
Language eng
 
Relation http://www.ijept.org/index.php/ijept%20/article/view/The_Assessment_of_Some_Point_and_Forecast_Intervals_for_Unemployment_Rate_in_Romania/pdf_90