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Testing the Efficiency of the Sovereign Debt Market using an Asymmetrical Volatility Test

Journal of Management and Training for Industries

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Title Testing the Efficiency of the Sovereign Debt Market using an Asymmetrical Volatility Test
 
Creator Fakhry, pp.1-15. Bachar; University of Bedfordshire
Richter, Christian; German University in Cairo
 
Subject Efficient Market Hypothesis, Volatility Tests, Asymmetrical Effect, GJR-GARCH, Sovereign Debt Market, Crises
 
Description The efficient market hypothesis has been around since 1962, the theory based on a simple rule that states the price of any asset must fully reflect all available information. Yet there is empirical evidence that markets are too volatile to be efficient.  This evidence is suggesting that the reaction is the crucial factor, rather than the actual information. Generally, market participants react differently to negative and positive market shocks, hinting at asymmetrical effects. This research aims to analyse the impact of the asymmetrical effect on the efficiency of the financial market during the recent crises.We test the efficiency of the financial market using the daily prices of the US and German sovereign debts between January 2002 and March 2013. This allowed us to test the efficiency during the pre-crisis, financial crisis and sovereign debt crisis periods. We used a GJR-GARCH based variance bound test based on the test derived by Fakhry & Richter (2015). Our tests produced mixed results, pointing at the markets being too volatile to be efficient. Interestingly the addition of the asymmetrical effect led to a reduction in EMH test statistics based on the results from Fakhry & Richter (2015) and hence may have had an impact on the efficiency of the market.  Conversely, the results are more appropriate speak of bounded rationality than irrationality.The key contribution is the extension of the variance bound test to include the asymmetrical effect. This allowed us to discuss the reaction to negative and positive shocks from the crises on the efficiency of the German and US markets. A key conclusion of the paper is that it does hint at the use of a switching GARCH model as an alternative to the GJR-GARCH model. Therefore, a prospective future research could be the use of a switching GARCH model to analyse the different impact of high and low volatility regimes on the efficiency of the market. Another prospective is the use of sovereign debt indices instead of the issued sovereign debts as the observed data. This would allow us to overcome a number of issues highlighted in the conclusion.
 
Publisher The Institute of Industrial Applications Engineers, Japan
 
Contributor —
 
Date 2016-10-01
 
Type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
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Format application/pdf
 
Identifier https://www2.ia-engineers.org/JMTI/index.php/jmti/article/view/321
 
Source Journal of Management and Training for Industries; Vol 3, No 2
Journal of Management and Training for Industries; Vol 3, No 2
2188-2274
2188-8728
 
Language eng
 
Relation https://www2.ia-engineers.org/JMTI/index.php/jmti/article/view/321/33
 
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