Record Details

THE EVALUATION OF FORECASTS ACCURACY FOR INFLATION RATE, EXCHANGE RATE AND RATE OF MONEY SUPPLY IN ROMANIA

International Journal of Economic Practices and Theories

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Field Value
 
Title THE EVALUATION OF FORECASTS ACCURACY FOR INFLATION RATE, EXCHANGE RATE AND RATE OF MONEY SUPPLY IN ROMANIA
 
Creator Simionescu, Mihaela
 
Subject Econometrics and statistics;Macroeconomics
econometric model, forecast, accuracy, naïve forecasts, combined forecasts
C130, C150, C52, C53
 
Description The tasks of this research refer to the proposal of some econometric models to describe and predict the evolution of few macroeconomic indicators in Romania: inflation rate, exchange rate and rate of money supply. These econometric models were used as forecasting methods, the ex-post assessment of the predictions being made. Monthly forecasts were provided for index of consumer prices, but they are less accurate than the naïve predictions. For exchange rate and rate of money supply the forecasts based on own econometric models were more accurate those based on random walk. For exchange rate more types of econometric models were built: GARCH(1,1), movering average model, simulataneous equations model, model with lag. Combined forecasts of exchange rate proved to be a good strategy of improving the accuracy of forecasts based on econometric models.
 
Publisher International Journal of Economic Practices and Theories
 
Contributor —
 
Date 2014-04-01
 
Type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
Peer-reviewed Article
 
Format application/pdf
 
Identifier http://www.ijept.org/index.php/ijept%20/article/view/The_Evaluation_of_Forecasts_Accuracy_for_Inflation_Rate%2C_Exchange_Rate_and_Rate_of_Money_Supply_in_Romania
 
Source International Journal of Economic Practices and Theories; Vol 4, No 3 (2014); 392-403
2247 – 7225
 
Language eng
 
Relation http://www.ijept.org/index.php/ijept%20/article/view/The_Evaluation_of_Forecasts_Accuracy_for_Inflation_Rate%2C_Exchange_Rate_and_Rate_of_Money_Supply_in_Romania/pdf_12