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FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG BERPENGARUH TERHADAP JUMLAH UANG BEREDAR DI INDONESIA SEBELUM DAN SESUDAH KRISIS: SEBUAH ANALISIS EKONOMETRIKA

Journal of Management and Entrepreneurship

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Title FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG BERPENGARUH TERHADAP JUMLAH UANG BEREDAR DI INDONESIA SEBELUM DAN SESUDAH KRISIS: SEBUAH ANALISIS EKONOMETRIKA
 
Creator Prayitno, Lily; Alumnus, Faculty of Economics, Petra Christian University
Sandjaya, Heny; Alumnus, Faculty of Economics, Petra Christian University
Llewelyn, Richard; Faculty of Economics, Petra Christian University
 
Subject monetary policy, government spending, foreign reserves, money multiplier, log model.
 
Description This study uses regression analysis with a log model to analyze the effect of government spending, foreign reserves and the money multiplier on the money supply in Indonesia for the period before the economic crisis (1990-1997), since the crisis (1997-1999) and overall (1990-1999).
Before the crisis, the results show that government spending is significantly and positively related to the money supply; foreign reserves are not significant, and the money multiplier is actually significantly and negatively related to the money supply. Since the crisis, government spending is still positively and significantly related with money supply while the foreign reserves and money multiplier are not significant. For the entire time period, government spending and foreign reserves have a positive and significant effect on money supply while the money multiplier has no significant effect.
The government should apply fiscal policy as is has since the crisis and increase the amount of foreign reserves which it holds. The government should not depend on using the money multiplier in monetary policy since it was found to have no significant effect on money supply.


Abstract in Bahasa Indonesia :

Penelitian ini menggunakan analisa regresi dengan model log untuk menganalisa pengaruh pengeluaran pemerintah, cadangan devisa, serta angka pengganda uang (money multiplier) terhadap jumlah uang beredar di Indonesia untuk periode periode sebelum krisis (1990-1997), sesudah krisis (1997-1999) dan secara keseluruhan (1990-1999).
Sebelum krisis hasil menunjukkan bahwa pengeluaran pemerintah secara signifikan berpengaruh positif terhadap jumlah uang beredar (M2); cadangan devisa tidak signifikan terhadap jumlah uang beredar; sedangkan angka pengganda uang berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap jumlah uang beredar. Sesudah krisis, pengeluaran pemerintah secara signifikan berpengaruh positif terhadap jumlah uang beredar sedangkan cadangan devisa dan money multiplier tidak signifikan. Untuk seluruh waktu analisa, pengeluaran pemerintah dan cadangan devisa berpengaruh secara signifikan dan positif terhadap jumlah uang beredar sedangkan angka pengganda uang tidak signifikan.
Pemerintah diharapkan menerapkan kebijakan fiskal sesuai yang telah diterapkan selama krisis berlangsung serta meningkatkan jumlah cadangan devisa yang dimilikinya. Pemerintah sebaiknya tidak mengandalkan money multiplier dalam kebijakan uang yang beredar karena tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap uang yang beredar.

Kata kunci: kebijakan moneter, pengeluran pemerintah, cadangan devisa, angka pengganda uang, model log.
 
Publisher Institute of Research and Community Outreach - Petra Christian University
 
Date 2004-06-04
 
Type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
 
Format application/pdf
 
Identifier http://jurnalmanajemen.petra.ac.id/index.php/man/article/view/15621
10.9744/jmk.4.1.pp. 46-55
 
Source Jurnal Manajemen dan Kewirausahaan; Vol 4, No 1 (2002): MARCH 2002; pp. 46-55
 
Language eng
 
Relation http://jurnalmanajemen.petra.ac.id/index.php/man/article/view/15621/15613
 
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