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Climate change impacts on maize and dry bean yields of smallholder farmers in Honduras

Iberoamerican Journal of Development Studies

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Title Climate change impacts on maize and dry bean yields of smallholder farmers in Honduras
Impacto del cambio climático sobre el rendimiento de maíz y frijol de los pequeños productores de Honduras
 
Creator Diaz-Ambrona, Carlos G.H.; Universidad Politecnica de Madrid
Gigena, Ruben; Escuela Agrícola Panamericana Zamorano
Mendoza, Carlos Onan; Escuela Agrícola Panamericana Zamorano
 
Subject Central America, Crop Simulation model, CropSyst, Food security, Subsistence, Subtropical.
América central, Modelo de simulación de cultivo, CropSyst, Seguridad
 
Description The rotation maize and dry bean provides the main food supply of smallholder farmers in Honduras. Crop model assessment of climate change impacts (2070-2099 compared to a 1961-1990 baseline) on a maize-dry ben rotation for several sites across a range of climatic zones and elevations in Honduras. Low productivity systems, together with an uncertain future climate, pose a high level of risk for food security. The cropping systems simulation dynamic model CropSyst was calibrated and validated upon field trail site at Zamorano, then run with baseline and future climate scenarios based upon general circulation models (GCM) and the ClimGen synthetic daily weather generator. Results indicate large uncertainty in crop production from various GCM simulations and future emissions scenarios, but generally reduced yields at low elevations by 0% to 22% in suitable areas for crop production and increased yield at the cooler, on the hillsides, where farming needs to reduce soil erosion with conservation techniques. Further studies are needed to investigate strategies to reduce impacts and to explore adaptation tactics.


CITE AS:
Diaz-Ambrona, C., Gigena, R., Mendoza, C. (2013). Climate change impacts on maize and dry bean yields of smallholder farmers in Honduras. Iberoamerican Journal of Development Studies, 2 (1): 4-22
La rotación maíz-frijol es la fuente de alimentos de los pequeños productores de Honduras. Se ha determinado el impacto del cambio climático (comparado 2070-2099 con 1961-1990) mediante un modelo de simulación de la rotación en localidades de Honduras de distintas zonas climáticas y altitudes. La baja productividad unida a las incertidumbres sobre el clima futuro generan un elevado riesgo sobre la seguridad alimentaria. El modelo de simulación de sistemas de cultivo CropSyst se ha calibrado y validado con datos de campo del Zamorano, después se ha aplicado al clima base y a los escenarios futuros de varias simulaciones de GCMs y escenarios de emisión, aplicando el generador de datos diarios ClimGen. Los resultados indican una gran incertidumbre, pero en general una reducción del rendimiento del 0% al 22% en las zonas bajas, más adecuadas para el cultivo y un aumento en las zonas más frías, en zonas montañosas donde la agricultura debe evitar la erosión mediante la aplicación de técnicas de conservación del suelo. Futuros estudios son necesarios para investigar sobre como reducir el impacto y buscar estrategias de adaptación en las prácticas agrícolas.


CITAR COMO:
Diaz-Ambrona, C., Gigena, R., Mendoza, C. (2013). Climate change impacts on maize and dry bean yields of smallholder farmers in Honduras. Iberoamerican Journal of Development Studies, 2 (1): 4-22
 
Publisher Universidad de Zaragoza
 
Contributor Agencia Española de Cooperación Internacional para el Desarrollo (AECID)
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Date 2013-05-08
 
Type —
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Format application/pdf
 
Identifier http://ried.unizar.es/index.php/revista/article/view/43
10.26754/ojs_ried/ijds.43
 
Source Revista iberoamericana de estudios de desarrollo = Iberoamerican journal of development studies; Vol 2, Issue 1 (2013): January - June 2013; 4-22
Revista iberoamericana de estudios de desarrollo = Iberoamerican journal of development studies; Vol 2, Issue 1 (2013): January - June 2013; 4-22
 
Language en
 
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Rights Este obra está bajo una licencia de Creative Commons Reconocimiento-NoComercial-SinObraDerivada 4.0 Internacional.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 International.