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Bayesian Model for Tourism in Thailand under Political and Terrorism Uncertainty

WMS Journal of Management

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Title Bayesian Model for Tourism in Thailand under Political and Terrorism Uncertainty
 
Creator Wongkhae, Komkrit
 
Description Political and terrorism uncertainty did vastly effect on tourism as well as economic sector. Since these two unpleasant events affected the decision of destination selection of tourist.   This study verified inter-relationship among tourism arrival, monthly index of production, consumer price index and local consumer confidence by using political and deep Southern terrorism unrests as exogenous variables. In order to capture these linkages, the study adopted Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregressive (BSVAR) Model for estimation. The contemporaneous restriction matrix was used to determine the relationship among variables. The study revealed that there exist negative shock of political demonstrations on tourist arrival and positive direction on national price level. The Southern terrorism events on the other hand, the effect was not found to the international tourism but the negative effect was sizably detected on local’s consumer confidence. The policy recommendation was that the national stability is necessary to implement for enhancing both local confidence and tourist arrivals.
 
Publisher WMS Journal of Management
 
Date 2016-01-24
 
Type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
Original Articles Commentary
 
Format application/pdf
 
Identifier http://tci-thaijo.org/index.php/wms/article/view/47201
 
Source WMS Journal of Management; Vol 5 No 1 (2016): January - April 2016; 40-47
2286-718X
 
Language eng
 
Relation http://tci-thaijo.org/index.php/wms/article/view/47201/39106
 
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