Since 2014
A Dynamic Scoring Simulation Analysis of How TEL Design Choices Impact Government Expansion
Journal of Economic & Financial Studies
View Archive Info| Field | Value | |
| Title |
A Dynamic Scoring Simulation Analysis of How TEL Design Choices Impact Government Expansion
|
|
| Creator |
Merrifield, John D.
Poulson, Barry W. |
|
| Subject |
—
fiscal consolidation; budget stabilization; fiscal rules; state fiscal policy; TEL — |
|
| Description |
A dynamic scoring simulation analysis compares the size-of-government effects of four state-government-level Tax and Expenditure Limit (TEL) and Budget Stabilization Fund (BSF) combinations. Two of the four TEL-BSF combinations have population-plus-inflation as the basis for the spending growth limit. The other two TEL-BSF combinations have personal-income-growth as the basis for the spending growth cap. A sensitivity analysis, including a regression analysis of Monte-Carlo-generated ‘observations’, measures the significance of the model parameter choices. The personal-income-growth TELs don’t constrain spending growth at all in some states. In most states, a TEL based on a significant multiple of population plus inflation restrains fiscal expansion more than either version of our personal income growth TEL. The findings provide some important policy issues: there are significant differences in the fiscal and economic impacts of likely TEL design alternatives, and there is a likely trade-off between stringency and political durability.
|
|
| Publisher |
LAR Center Press
|
|
| Contributor |
—
|
|
| Date |
2016-05-13
|
|
| Type |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Peer-reviewed Article |
|
| Format |
application/pdf
|
|
| Identifier |
http://journalofeconomics.org/index.php/site/article/view/211
10.18533/jefs.v4i02.211 |
|
| Source |
Journal of Economic & Financial Studies; Vol 4, No 02 (2016): April; 60-68
2379-9471 2379-9463 |
|
| Language |
eng
|
|
| Relation |
http://journalofeconomics.org/index.php/site/article/view/211/286
|
|
| Rights |
Copyright (c) 2016 JOHN D. MERRIFIELD, BARRY W. POULSON
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
|