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Introduction to the Special Issue on DSGE Models for the Brazilian Economy

Brazilian Review of Econometrics

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Title Introduction to the Special Issue on DSGE Models for the Brazilian Economy
 
Creator Carmargo, Braz; BRE
Guimaraes, Bernardo
 
Subject —
—
 
Description Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models have become the
standard framework for quantitative macroeconomic analysis in the world. Naturally,
there is now a growing literature on DSGE models designed to study the
Brazilian economy. A conference organized by the Centro Macro Brasil of the
Sao Paulo School of Economics – FGV, sponsored by the Instituto de Pesquisa
Econˆomica Aplicada (IPEA), on August 22, 2014 featured papers using DSGE
models applied to Brazil. This special issue of the Brazilian Review of Econometrics
contains five papers presented in the conference.
The Brazilian Central Bank (Banco Central do Brasil) has its own DSGE
model, the so-called SAMBA. The paper that presents and analyses the model,
by Marcos de Castro, Solange Gouvea, Andr´e Minella, Rafael Santos and Nelson
Souza-Sobrinho, leads this special issue. SAMBA is a large scale DSGE model
with a few features designed to bring it closer to the Brazilian economy, namely,
the presence of administered prices, an explicit target for the primary surplus,
a fraction of households with no access to financial markets, external finance of
imports, and imports used as inputs in the production function. SAMBA can be
used as a tool for forecasting and for assessing the impact of different shocks.
The second paper in this volume, by Fabio Kanczuk, shares the same objectives
but employs a medium scale DSGE model of a small open economy. The model is
then estimated to understand which shocks can explain the observed fluctuations
in output in the last 15 years. The model is also used to assess the economic
impacts of a hypothetical currency depreciation and to check the hypothesis that
monetary policy has become more powerful over time in Brazil.
The next paper in this volume, by Marco Cavalcanti and Luciano Vereda,
builds a DSGE framework with a rich modeling of the public sector that explicitly
considers public employment as well as other types of public expenditures, public
investments and transfers. The model also incorporates a fairly detailed fiscal apparatus
comprising several policy instruments both on the taxation and spending
sides, and considers different fiscal rules. The model is thus able to quantify the
macroeconomic effects of shocks to different types of fiscal policy in the short and
medium run.
The fourth paper in this volume, by Vladimir Teles, Celso Costa J´unior and
Rafael Rosa, presents a DSGE model with two sectors that incorporates technical progress in the investment goods sector. This is motivated by evidence of the
importance of this channel that they also document in the paper. They show
that incorporating productivity shocks specific to the investment goods sector in
the model affects the results in important ways. In particular, optimal monetary
policy is more rigorous than in standard models.
Most DSGE models applied to the Brazilian economy do not use data from the
periods preceding the adoption of the inflation targeting regime in 1999. In the
last paper of this volume, Carlos Carvalho and Andr´e Vilela build a DSGE model
to investigate the transition between the different exchange rate (and monetary
policy) regimes that took place in 1999. Their results support the transition to
the inflation targeting regime in 1999, but suggest that an earlier transition in the
first half of 1998 might have been even better.
The papers in this special issue highlight the main advantages of the use of
DSGE models for quantitative macroeconomic analysis. As put by Kanczuk, a
DSGE model “forces one to think in terms of exogenous shocks and endogenous
responses, and thus to ask sensible questions”. Castro et al. add that DSGE
models “can be successfully used as a story-telling device in the policymaking
process.” We hope that by bringing together a number of papers applying the
DSGE methodology to study the Brazilian macro economy, this volume serves
both as a useful guide to and as an inspiration for researchers interested in working
in this area.
 
Publisher Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria
 
Contributor —
 
Date 2016-05-09
 
Type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
Peer-reviewed Article
 
Format application/pdf
 
Identifier http://bibliotecadigital.fgv.br/ojs/index.php/bre/article/view/61662
10.12660/bre.v35n22015.61662
 
Source Brazilian Review of Econometrics; Vol 35, No 2 (2015): Special Volume SAMBA; 101-102
Brazilian Review of Econometrics; Vol 35, No 2 (2015): Special Volume SAMBA; 101-102
1980-2447
 
Language eng
 
Relation http://bibliotecadigital.fgv.br/ojs/index.php/bre/article/view/61662/59844
 
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