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Modelling Asylum Migration Pull-Force Factors in the EU-15

The Economic and Social Review

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Field Value
 
Title Modelling Asylum Migration Pull-Force Factors in the EU-15
 
Creator Keogh, Gerard
 
Subject migration; asylum seekers; European Union
 
Description We model the relationship between asylum applications across the EU-15 and three key pull-force factors, GDP, the recognition rate (grants of refugee status as a percentage of all refugee decisions) and refugee stocks. A Dynamic Coefficient Random Effects Panel model is employed which captures both the country specific variance and temporal features. This model provides deeper insight into the relationship than has hitherto been possible. We show for Austria, Spain and possibly Belgium that the three predictive factors dominate while for other countries in the EU-15 country specific factors are more important. In relation to temporal effects we show both GDP and the recognition rate at the overall EU-15 level remain significant over time but refugee stock does not. We also show a downward level shift occurred in the elasticity of recognition rate in 2002 resulting in fewer refugees being recognised (i.e., granted refugee status) and, therefore, providing evidence that asylum policies have become more restrictive.
 
Publisher The Economic and Social Review
 
Contributor —
 
Date 2013-09-26
 
Type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
Peer-reviewed Article
 
Format application/pdf
 
Identifier http://www.esr.ie/article/view/77
 
Source The Economic and Social Review; Vol 44, No 3, Autumn (2013); 371–399
0012-9984
 
Language eng
 
Relation http://www.esr.ie/article/view/77/67
 
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